Trump’s mind-bending Middle East gambit: Egging Netanyahu on, from the right
Of all of Trump’s many disruptions, this may be the most surprising — and the most dangerous
A game of one-upmanship is afoot, with potential global consequences. Photo by Ting Shen/Bloomberg and Andrew Harnik via Getty Images
Columnist Dan Perry February 12, 2025
For decades, U.S. administrations — Republican and Democratic alike — have sought to rein in right-wing Israeli governments, treating them as strategic allies but also problematic actors in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Even staunchly pro-Israel Republican presidents like Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush had their run-ins with Israeli leaders over Jewish settlements, military actions, and diplomatic obstructions.
But in his current mindset, President Donald Trump has upended this long-standing dynamic in a spectacularly bizarre way: Instead of trying to restrain Israel’s hard-right government, he is goading it into even more extreme positions, outflanking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself. Of all of Trump’s many disruptions, this may be the most surprising — and the most dangerous.
Trump’s recent statements about Gaza — suggesting the U.S. could “own” it, “buy” it, or turn it into a riviera of luxury resorts (but not for Palestinians, whom he says should leave and never return) — are unprecedented in their audacity. For the U.S. president to casually float such ideas adds a surreal layer to an already volatile situation.
Even Netanyahu, who has spent years forging alliances with Israel’s far-right elements, has never openly advocated for mass expulsion. For all his political cynicism and moral wobbliness, Netanyahu operates with a level of strategic calculation, generally within the bounds of civilized discourse — even when he transparently schemes, gaslights and cheats.
For example, Israelis widely believe that Netanyahu is hesitant to complete the second stage of the hostage deal he signed because doing so could collapse his fragile coalition. His far-right allies have threatened to bring down his government if the war ends with Hamas still in power — which is, in fact, the deal. If Netanyahu does scupper a deal, he will allow a situation to unfold in which the remaining hostages could be condemned to death, all so he can keep his seat.
But when he pursues such morally reprehensible policies, he does so with a claim to a rational argument — such as the assertion that Hamas must be fully removed for the sake of long-term stability. He produces excuses — a Hamas violation. While his craven motives can be strongly suspected, they’re rarely provable. He operates from the shadows.
Until recently it had been assumed that Trump — who pressured Netanyahu into accepting the ceasefire deal even before he assumed office — would rein in this Netanyahu impulse. Instead, Trump now seems to be saying — seems, because the story changes by the minute — that Israel should tear up the frustratingly complex multi-stage deal and just resume the war unless all the hostages are returned by noon Saturday, Israeli time.
If one reads Netanyahu’s version of body language and understands what it means when most of the reaction in the Israeli media comes from an anonymous “senior official,” it’s clear that Trump’s moves have set the Israeli premier off-balance.
Why would Trump do this?
On the surface at least, his approach appears to be mainly about dominance, one-upmanship, and personal grievance. He has spent years trying to undo the accomplishments of his predecessors — abandoning the Iran nuclear deal, withdrawing from the Paris climate accord, constantly threatening Obamacare — and his recent Israel rhetoric fits the same pattern. Even though he pushed for it, the current deal is that pushed by his predecessor, former President Joe Biden.
And anyway, deals are not sacred in Trump’s world. When he walked away from Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, or for that matter the Paris climate accords, those actions badly shook U.S. credibility. That didn’t seem to faze him. His tactics are about being the loudest voice in the room, and reshaping the conversation through bombast and ego.
The implications are enormous. Traditionally, Israeli leaders have used American pressure as a convenient excuse to temper their own right-wing base. When far-right politicians demanded radical actions — damaging settlement expansions, or military escalation, or death penalties for Palestinians — even Likud leaders like Menachem Begin, Yitzhak Shamir and Ariel Sharon, and in the past even Netanyahu himself, could point to U.S. opposition as a limiting factor.
Now, with Trump actively encouraging the most radical positions, that excuse evaporates. Netanyahu is suddenly in the uncomfortable position of appearing more moderate than the White House, an impossible contradiction for a leader who has built his political brand on defying international pressure. Can he afford to be more “leftist” than Trump? If Trump is publicly advocating for tearing up hostage deals and permanently expelling Gazans, can Netanyahu afford to be seen as reluctant or pragmatic?
The pressure is immense. Netanyahu could align with Trump’s extremism, which would upset the Israeli public, most of whom likes Trump, yes, but wants the hostages home. Polls show more than 70% of Israelis want the war over and certainly want the deal finalized, and if the hostages die as a result of a renewal of the war there will be (even greater) rage in Israel at Netanyahu.
Or Netanyahu could be, well, reasonable, and risk alienating his own base and sacrificing the hold on power that he prizes to a pathological degree. A reasonable assessment is that Israel will be careful to not embarrass Trump, but will stick with the deal for the remainder of the first stage at least — meaning three hostages on Saturday will be enough.
Is there a method to Trump’s madness? Whereas I don’t share his instinct to burn down every house, I don’t rule out that in negotiations, outrageous positions can shift the terms of debate.
Yes, his wild talk of expulsions is dangerous and basically immoral, and could spawn terrorism against not just Israel but America as well. And yes, if he goads Netanyahu into resuming the war the result could be more dead hostages, soldiers and Palestinians.
On the other hand, whatever Trump’s primary motivations, it’s also not inconceivable that his bombast may force the Arab world to reconsider long-standing policies that have fueled intransigence by the Palestinians.
There are reasonable demands that Israel and the West could make of Arab states: forcing Hamas to step aside by denying it legitimacy and cutting off funding; launching a media campaign to delegitimize its leadership; and offering exile as an alternative to total destruction. The Arab states could pressure the Palestinian Authority to stop payments to the families of terrorists (a change already in motion, also probably due to Trump), reform its outrageous school curriculum, and curb corruption. And it could finally disabuse the Palestinians of the notion that millions of refugees and their descendants will return to Israel, which is a nonstarter for any peace deal.
In a region that has been stuck on old paradigms that have led to a cul-de-sac, perhaps a Trump-style shock might jolt things forward. History does suggest that inflaming tensions and encouraging extremism rarely leads to positive outcomes, but if Trump’s antics somehow force Arab governments and Palestinian leaders to confront long-avoided realities, there may be some benefit.
The risk is that in the process, Israel may become even more ensnared in its own radical politics, with Netanyahu riding Trump’s wave to genuinely disastrous results.
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