Tel Aviv protesters calling for the return of hostages react after a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal was reached on Jan. 15. Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images

Columnist Dan Perry January 15, 2025

Israel and Hamas’ new ceasefire deal promises to bring much-needed relief to the region after 15 months of brutal conflict. But a series of uncertainties continues to loom large.

Many pivotal questions remain unanswered, and their resolution will determine whether this ceasefire is a genuine step towards lasting peace or merely a temporary reprieve. Here are five of the most urgent.

1) Will Israel truly end the war in exchange for hostages?

The first phase of the deal will involve the release of 33 hostages, and a cessation of fighting in Gaza, alongside a partial pullback of the IDF. But what happens afterward remains somewhat unclear, as mediators have deployed the time-tested strategy of constructive ambiguity.

How? In that initial six-week stage, negotiators have agreed to, effectively, undertake further negotiations to settle the terms of the second and third stages, including the release of all remaining hostages, living and dead.

This plan is predicated on the expectation that,once all the hostages are released, the war will be over. But will Israel genuinely abide by this? To do so would contradict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s repeated assurances, since the onset of war, that Hamas will not remain in power in Gaza.

Given the current lack of clarity about the deal’s final steps, there is a real possibility either side might back out under the guise of unresolved terms.

2) Can Israel’s government survive if the far right rebels?

Netanyahu’s coalition enjoys a narrow majority of 68 seats in the Knesset, after four former members of the opposition joined him in exchange for government jobs two months ago. The far-right factions of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — both currently members of Netanyahu’s cabinet —collectively hold 14 seats, and are vocal in their opposition to any settlement that would involve Israel leaving Gaza.

Instead, they want permanent occupation of the strip, and renewed Jewish settlements there. They have vowed to oppose the deal, and they certainly will. The big question is whether they will simply vote against signing the deal, or if they will go so far as to collapse the government by withdrawing from Netanyahu’s coalition, leaving him without a majority.

The far right’s hardline stance could push them to extreme measures. There are reasons to suspect they are bluffing, foremost among them that all polls show their parties would sustain serious losses in a new election, meaning their best hope for keeping any hold on power is to stick with Netanyahu. And yet, a backlash from these hardliners could trigger a political crisis.

3) Will the moderate opposition help Netanyahu’s government?

Should the far-right factions choose to leave the government, the question arises: Will the moderate opposition — which wholeheartedly supports an end to the war — step in to help Netanyahu?

The opposition has consistently failed to present an effective challenge to Netanyahu, despite the clear failures of his government, including the disastrous handling of the Oct. 7 attack, and the wildly unpopular efforts at judicial overhaul. Some Israelis — including opposition backers — will argue that they should give Netanyahu a parliamentary safety net to secure the deal.

That would mean that the opposition agrees to not try to bring down the coalition for a given period, even if Netanyahu loses his majority with the departure of the far right. Would they do this? It’s not inconceivable — mainly because the ceasefire deal would be so popular.

4) Is there still a way to remove Hamas from Gaza?

One of the most glaring failures of Netanyahu’s strategy is the continued dominance of Hamas in Gaza. Netanyahu, while insisting — until now — on the necessity of the group’s destruction, has surprisingly refrained from taking serious steps to organize an alternative government for Gaza. Instead, his government has focused on vilifying the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, which, despite its flaws, represents perhaps the most realistic current alternative to Hamas.

In doing so, Netanyahu has squandered a rare opportunity to foster an effective post-Hamas governance structure in Gaza. The expectation had been that Israel would agree to enable the Palestinian Authority to reestablish itself in Gaza, from which it was violently expelled by Hamas in 2007. But over the course of the war, Israel blocked such an outcome with determination.

Now, the new agreement is vague on the future governance of Gaza; Hamas will remain in power, for now, but the long-term future remains uncertain.

The implications of this fact in Israel remain uncertain. Netanyahu has historically benefited politically from the existence of Hamas, whose terrorism and fervent opposition to compromise have helped move Israeli voters to the right by seeming to confirm his narrative that peace with the Palestinians is impossible. The coming weeks’ discourse in Israel will clarify whether Netanyahu sticks to this attitude toward Israel’s sworn enemy, or whether it becomes politically untenable for him domestically. Netanyahu may be approaching the point whether the Israeli public may turn on him decisively if it becomes clear that he is the reason that Hamas is still around.

5) Did Trump make any promises to Israel?

Finally, there is the question of whether Trump, in his dealings with Netanyahu, has offered Israel anything in return for accepting this deal.

Although the framework of a ceasefire-for-hostages agreement has been on the table for months, it appears that Trump, even before assuming office, may have played a key role in persuading Netanyahu to move forward with it. (His Middle East envoy was in Israel in recent days having conversations with the prime minister that were described in media leaks as very tough). Could Trump have promised Israel a freer hand in expanding settlements in the West Bank — or perhaps a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia in exchange for the ceasefire?

These possibilities, while currently entirely speculative, are critical to understanding the broader geopolitical context surrounding this deal. If Netanyahu has secured any significant concessions from Trump, it could shift the balance of the agreement and the long-term prospects for peace.

In the coming days, there will be jubilation over this long-awaited deal in both Israel and Gaza. But the next few weeks of negotiations will be crucial in determining whether this fragile ceasefire can evolve into a lasting peace — or whether it will simply be another fleeting moment in the endless cycle of conflict.

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