5 questions and answers on Jewish voters and candidates as Election Day approaches
Where does the Jewish vote matter most?
Jewish supporters of Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump. Photo by DOMINIC GWINN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images / Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
By Jacob Kornbluh November 3, 2024
Although Jews make up a small portion of the electorate, their votes could weigh heavily in Tuesday’s high-stakes election.
On Tuesday — and beyond given that the presidential race may be too close to call that night — Jewish voters will be watching to find out who will next lead the nation, but also what the outcomes of downballot contests may mean for Israel and the Middle East conflict. Here are five questions about Jewish voters and Jewish candidates on the cusp of Election 2024.
Where will the Jewish vote matter most?
Jews make up just 2% of the national electorate and historically lean Democratic. But the number of Jewish voters in states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin exceeded President Joe Biden’s margin of victory when he beat Trump in 2020. Even a small slip of Jewish voters toward Trump in those states could hand him the election.
A recent Forward/CHIPS50 poll showed that 62% of Jewish voters nationwide plan to vote for Harris and 31% for Trump — though remove those who didn’t vote in 2020 and those who don’t know who they will choose, and her support rises to 68%. A Democratic poll released last month by GBAO found her with 71% of the Jewish vote in swing states.
Republicans have stepped up efforts to boost Jewish support for Trump and downballot candidates, arguing that the Democrats’ approach to Israel has softened Jewish support for the party. The Republican Jewish Coalition invested $15 million in advertising and direct outreach in several battleground states. Meanwhile, the Jewish Democratic Council of America spent some $2 million to mobilize Jewish support for Democrats. The Democratic Majority for Israel and its PAC released several digital ads targeting Jewish voters in swing states that attacked Trump and touted Harris’ record on Israel.
The campaigns are courting Jewish voters hardest in Pennsylvania and Michigan, two electoral-vote-rich states in a Rust Belt trio (Wisconsin is the third) widely considered the most obvious path to victory for Harris. In both states, Harris and Trump are virtually tied. Jews could also play an important role in the outcome of tight Pennsylvania and Michigan Senate races.
Jews make up 3% of voters in Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes and where Democratic Sen. Bob Casey faces former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, who has embraced a Christian nationalist who trafficked in antisemitism. In Michigan, which has 15 electoral votes, Jews make up 1.5% of the electorate. There Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Jewish former CIA analyst, faces former Rep. Mike Rogers for an open seat.
Jews also make up 3% of Nevada voters, according to 2020 exit poll data. Of those 41,000 Jewish voters, 75% picked Biden over Trump — while the margin of victory was around 33,000 votes. Recent polls show the contest for the state’s six electoral votes is dead even. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat who calls herself the first synagogue president ever to win a Senate seat, is up for reelection in Nevada, which could help turn out the Jewish blue vote. In Georgia, with its 16 electoral votes, Joe Biden won in 2020 by 12,000 votes. The state’s 125,000 Jews, who make up just over 1% of the electorate, could weigh heavily there too.
Exit polls — released on election night and in subsequent days — will show how the Jewish vote broke down, whether Harris suffered from an erosion of Jewish support, and whether any changes appear to be temporary or a notable realignment between parties.
Jewish voters can also be pivotal in key congressional races in New York, with Orthodox voters leaning heavily toward Trump. Jews play a significant role in close contests in upstate New York, the Hudson Valley and Nassau County.
In Florida, the state with the third-largest Jewish population, some polls show Republican Sen. Rick Scott leading his Democratic rival by 4%, a margin that matches the state’s overall Jewish electorate. Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, said on a recent call with Jewish canvassers that Democrats are losing Jewish support because of the strong Republican response to pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses.
Would Josh Shapiro as vice presidential pick have made a difference in Pennsylvania?
Recent polls, published over the weekend, show potential trouble for Democrats in Pennsylvania. Josh Shapiro, the popular Jewish governor of Pennsylvania who Harris passed over as her running mate in August, appeared with her in a television and online ad released late last week to boost her campaign in the last days before the election.
While Shapiro has crisscrossed the country as one of her most enthusiastic surrogates on the campaign trail, some have wondered if Harris’ decision not to pick him will cost her the key battleground state. Shapiro’s name on the ticket, some have argued, could have energized not only Pennsylvania’s Jewish voters but also suburban moderates drawn to his pragmatism.
Shapiro could become a favorite in 2028, if Harris loses the presidency, especially if she wins Pennsylvania.
How will the Uncommitted vote?
As they scramble to capture Jewish votes, the presidential campaigns have made last-ditch efforts to win over Arab American voters, a tricky proposition since Jewish and Muslim constituencies tend to take disparate views of the Israel-Hamas war.
More than 700,000 voters in the Democratic primaries — including 13% in Michigan’s — cast “uncommitted” ballots to protest President Joe Biden’s staunch support for Israel.
The movement’s leaders are split about whom they will vote for. Some see Harris, who has expressed somewhat stronger sympathy for Palestinians in Gaza, as a more palatable choice than Biden and Trump. Others have said they will not vote for Harris, after she dismissed their demand for an arms embargo against Israel, but for a third-party candidate — or leave the top line of the ballot blank.
What will Trump or Harris do to address the Middle East conflict?
Though American Jews in general feel connected to Israel, it has never been a top-tier issue for them. There are some indications, however, that it has moved up on their priority list in the wake of Oct. 7 and as Israel battles its enemies on several fronts. Trump and Harris have been vague about how they would approach the war in Gaza and Lebanon. Nonetheless, Jewish voters, especially those who feel strongly attached to Israel, are listening closely for candidates’ plans to end the war.
Trump has said that Israel should do whatever it takes to quickly finish the war, warning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the conflict should be resolved by Jan. 20. His call for a swift resolution has appealed to some Arab American voters, but seemingly not alienated Jewish supporters. Many Israelis also favor Trump, viewing him as a strong leader who will stand up to Iran and expand on the signature foreign policy achievement of his administration, the Abraham Accords.
Harris would likely press Israel harder to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza and agree to a ceasefire deal. But Netanyahu has in the past withstood pressure from Democratic presidents, and may view Harris as another he can afford to defy, especially if it bolsters his domestic political standing.
Critics accused Harris on Friday of targeting Arab and Jewish voters with different messages on the Middle East conflict. CNN aired an ad running in Michigan — home to a significant Arab American and Muslim population — in which Harris declares, “We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering. And I will not be silent.” In a Pennsylvania ad targeting Jewish voters, Harris says, “Let me be clear: I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself, and I will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself.”
Both candidates have close Jewish advisers who have helped shape their thinking on the Middle East and other issues.
How will Jewish candidates fare?
Jewish candidates are running in five pivotal races.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat from Michigan, would be the first Jewish woman to represent her state in the Senate. Recent polls show her leading Republican Mike Rogers by 2 percentage points. Her race is one of a handful that Republicans are focused on as they work to flip the Senate, where Democrats now hold a 51-49 majority.
If elected, Slotkin would join one other Jewish woman in the Senate, Democrat Jacky Rosen who is fighting to keep her seat in Nevada, another swing state, but doing better against her opponent.
Rep. Adam Schiff, the California Jewish Democrat who came to national prominence as the lead prosecutor in Trump’s first impeachment, is expected to win his race for the seat held by the late longtime Jewish Sen. Dianne Feinstein. If Republicans gain a Senate majority, Schiff will likely become a leading voice in the opposition and a strong defender of Israel.
On the House side, Eugene Vindman, a refugee from the former Soviet Union, is locked in a tight race for the Virginia district that includes some Washington, D.C., suburbs.
Additionally, Jewish businessman Adam Frisch is in a more challenging race in Colorado’s 3rd District after he came within 600 votes of defeating firebrand Rep. Lauren Boebert in 2022. Boebert moved to a neighboring district for her reelection bid and Frisch now faces a Republican who many believe may be harder to beat.
And Texas state Rep. Craig Goldman is on the path to becoming the third Jewish Republican in Congress.
In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is expected to win the governor’s office, in part because of the ever-lengthening trail of incendiary comments by his GOP opponent, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Stein, who would be the first Jew elected governor of the state, has not highlighted his Jewish identity in his campaign.
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