U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) speaks on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

By Lauren Markoe October 30, 2024

U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin never had an easy path to the Senate, but a win for the Jewish Democratic Congresswoman looks tougher in these last days before the election than it did just a month ago.

A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll of 500 likely voters has Slotkin leading Republican Mike Rogers by less than two percentage points. Rogers represented Michigan in Congress for 14 years before stepping down in 2015. Slotkin’s lead is well within the margin of error, with nearly 5% of those surveyed still undecided.

That lead compares to her nearly six percentage-point lead in an average of polls tabulated by the polling news site 538 in September.

Is Slotkin — who would be the fourth Jewish woman senator in history if she wins — losing her edge?

Her race is one of a handful that Republicans are focused on as they work to flip the Senate, where Democrats now hold a 51-49 majority. The non-partisan Cook Political Report has labeled the contest for the open seat, held by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a toss up.

Why is the Slotkin v. Rogers race so tight?

The tightening race may reflect a statewide and national trend of an increasingly small number of voters making late-in-the-game decisions, said Ken Kollman, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.

These are less-educated, less-informed voters “who don’t pay attention to politics very much,” he said. “They’re probably leaning more Trump.”

And in the same way, he said, they probably lean more toward Rogers, who Trump endorsed.

Dennis Lennox, a Republican political consultant from Michigan, gives Rogers credit. He had a tough primary  — and a late one — in August, Lennox said, while Slotkin had little competition. “I think that brought his numbers down.”

But since then Rogers has been running a strong, traditional campaign, with plenty of support from the party and outside groups, Lennox said. He said he and his family “have been getting mail just about every day for almost six weeks” in support of Rogers.

Slotkin, however, has a far bigger campaign war chest. The candidates’ most recent Federal Election Commission reports show that she has raised about $80 million to his $62 million.

Kollman said Slotkin, a moderate Democrat who was an intelligence analyst in the CIA and served three tours in Iraq, could attract some crossover voters in this very swing state — Republicans who vote for Trump and for her.

Michigan voters chose Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Biden over Trump in 2020. Slotkin’s campaign spent more than $1 million running an ad touting a bill she wrote that Trump signed when he was president.

Michigan voters, like voters nationally, are focused on the economy, but the Israel-Hamas war looms large for many. The state has the largest percentage of Muslims and Arab-Americans in the nation. And 13% of Michigan Democrats chose “uncommitted” in the primaries, a protest against President Joe Biden — then the expected Democratic presidential nominee — over his close embrace of Israel in the Israel-Hamas war.

Both Slotkin, who became a bat mitzvah at Temple Beth El, a Reform synagogue outside Detroit, and Rogers are strong supporters of Israel. But both have still courted Arab Americans in Michigan, who make up about 1% of the state’s population. Jewish voters make up about 2%.

Halie Soifer, CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, and a native Michigander who grew up in Slotkin’s district, said the state since 2018 has been very politically divided, and elections have been very close. But she predicted Slotkin will win on November 5.

“Not just with the support of her Democratic base,” Soifer said, pointing to Slotkin’s three successful campaigns for the House and national security background, “but also with the support of independent and even some Republican voters.”

Slotkin would join one other Jewish woman in the Senate, Democrat Jacky Rosen.

Rosen is fighting to keep her seat in Nevada, another swing state, but doing better against her opponent.

An average of polls tabulated by the polling site 538 have her ahead of Army veteran Sam Brown by more than seven percentage points.

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